April 21, 2003

A Fresh Page

Imagine that. Months ago, I've been arguing my heart out that the Iraq war simply will not take place because I believed that the diplomatic risks were too high. Well kudos to Mr. Bush for proving me wrong. Funny but I just can't seem to come to terms with the will of one man overriding so many others. Personally, I think it sets such a bad precedent. It was a win for strong leadership, but a loss for justified actions.

During that time when the rubble were still buildings, the peso weakened day in and day out. It came to a point that people I talked to all asked about P60:$1. Honestly I couldn't say no. Each delay then in the UN's resolutions only served to prolong the uncertainties in the world markets. One time I even voiced out that there would come a point that the cost of waiting would even exceed the cost of war. But gladly, I don't think we ever got there. Imagine reeling from $40 / barrel crude prices, a P60:$1 exchange rate, and possibly higher interest rates. Wow, that's sure to cut generously into what would have been 2003 corporate profits.

But this is all academic now. We're pretty much back from where we were before the war, marketwise at least. Hopefully whatever costs were priced into 1Q03 corporate performances were not substantial enough to push companies into the loss column. Otherwise, this nice little run-up that we've been seeing in local stocks will just as easily dissipate. But that aside, 2003 may actually prove to be a good year in terms of utilization, expansion, balance sheet stability, and hopefully even profits.