March 17, 2004

First Quarter Decline

The Phisix recently touched a three-month low courtesy of an eight-session slide. Who do we blame? Martha Stewart's conviction? Nah. We don't have that many homemaker investors here I think. Could it be the Supreme Court's decision that FPJ is Filipino? Well it's hard to see any silver lining related to FPJ in the first place. Sigh. Look at the charts. When did FPJ announce his candidacy? Where did the peso go right after that? Maybe Janet Jackson's nipple exposure during the super bowl? Well that certainly didn't do anything for me. My guess is that it didn't do anything for the market either. The Madrid bombing? The Eddie Gil disqualification? Guingona's defection? Calpers? It could be all those. Well the market really should behave like this anyway. Remember, Google searches for migration also increased when Erap ran for president (or so I guess). But guess what? The market rallied right after the election because it was peaceful. Perhaps that will also happen this year whoever wins. Maybe we can position in the market in the midst of the intensified mudslinging. As a hedge though, keep your other foot in the Canadian embassy