July 19, 2001
Fluke
The Peso performed mightily today, prompting us to wonder why the stock market did not take its cue from that. Then again, appreciating by a peso in half a day, we would all suspect this to be the handiwork of the BSP. Rightfully so, the bank exerted a little muscle to make speculators think twice before acting. Then again, exactly because it looks like an intervention, the peso's rally may be fleeting.
But even as the peso peaked at 53.1 to a dollar this morning, the stock market composite Index dropped by as much as 18.77 points, as large investors let go of their blue chips. The index did recoup a bit of its losses and by close only declined by 11.31 points, but clearly the order for the day was to sell.
Should the index decline by a little more than 10 points tomorrow, we believe a number of blue chips may just be perfect for bargain hunting. In fact we'll point out a number of them later.
In the meantime, the saga of SMC, Pepsi, RFM and Cosmos may finally be nearing its conclusion. Albeit both RFM and SMC disclosed that there are still issues being ironed out (such as valuation), it was reported that SMC was the chosen buyer. RFM's 85% stake in CBC will be valued at P14.5bn, inclusive of a P2.5bn goodwill money that will be distributed among RFM shareholders as dividends, and P1bn equivalent to CBC's total debt of the same amount. The same report indicated that at an P11bn net, CBC's shares would be valued at P5.20 or a 9.5% premium to CBC's closing price of P4.75 today.
With that arrangement, we believe there will be a dividend play for RFM. In fact, that seems apparent to investors already, as RFM gained 3.36% today to P2.46. The market likewise reacted favorably to SMC's "A" and "B" shares, which closed higher by P1.5 and P0.5, respectively.
AC today hit an intraday low of P6.4, although it didn't quite cover the gap at P6.3. But recovering from its low, the issue may now be in position for a technical bounce. However, should the issue be weighed down by the market's weakness tomorrow, it will become a more compelling buy.
BPC attempted to continue is impressive performance yesterday, rising 2.1% in midday, but was weighed down by the market's poor performance, and ended up a fluctuation lower at P1.88.
BPI lost a peso in today's session, thus falling to P69. At this point, the issue is in a precarious position and may fall below P68. Should that happen, the gap to be covered is at the P62 level. That spells a 8.9% potential drop in the near future. So it may be advisable to lay off the stock for a while.
PLDT dragged down the rest of the market with its poor performance, losing P30 to close at P660. A potential hazard for the issue would be a retracement all the way to P610. Should that materialize, PLDT will be a real bargain.
Thursday, July 19, 2001
Wednesday, July 18, 2001
July 18, 2001
Fluke
It would seem that today's strong performance is a fluke. After all, it would seem premature for any technical correction or bargain hunting to take place because there are no clear signals to indicate such. That aside, we've said before that speculation can be the only alternative valid reason for a rise. There was a buzz earlier than SMC has already won the bidding war for Cosmos, but then again SMC was not a strong performer today. Therefore we cannot attribute the rise to that issue. Then again, both SMC and SMCB registered intra-day upticks of P0.50, but there was much selling pressure on both and so the gains were pared in the end.
What makes the market's rise particularly "brave" is the fact that the peso weakened anew, breaching the 44 to a dollar level. In the morning session, the peso hit a low of 54.22, although the average was at a stronger 53.8. With this development, the BSP remained in the sidelines and once again said that it did not intervene directly in the market. However, with the depreciation unabated, some currency dealers have said that the BSP has no other recourse than to raise its overnight rates. The BSP also declined to do this. And so as it was over a week ago when then peso was threatening to breach the 52-level, the next move is with the BSP. Will it become a tradeoff between forex and interest? For sure the latter will have its adverse effects. Wasn't it just the other day when some dailies published that NPLs of commercial banks in May averaged 16.81%. And before that, the government's promised P125 hike of the minimum wage also threatened employer companies to a point that they feared closure and thousands of layoffs.
With all these unresolved, we reiterate our expectation that the market will see lower levels in the coming weeks. 1370 remains as our chief support level.
Meanwhile, there were a number of interesting developments that we believe should be noted. BPC rose mightily by 7.95% to P1.9. There hasn't been any news on the company, nor has the company made any disclosure lately, nor will it benefit from the volatile forex given its foreign debts. Well the rumors circulating is that the company may sell some assets, although such doesn't really warrant a spike in the issue's price.
RFM on the other hand finally succumbed to selling pressure after performing well with a backdrop of a dismal market. Just as well, since we've had a trading sell recommendation on the issue for a number of days now. RFM dipped by 6.67% to P2.38.
Fluke
It would seem that today's strong performance is a fluke. After all, it would seem premature for any technical correction or bargain hunting to take place because there are no clear signals to indicate such. That aside, we've said before that speculation can be the only alternative valid reason for a rise. There was a buzz earlier than SMC has already won the bidding war for Cosmos, but then again SMC was not a strong performer today. Therefore we cannot attribute the rise to that issue. Then again, both SMC and SMCB registered intra-day upticks of P0.50, but there was much selling pressure on both and so the gains were pared in the end.
What makes the market's rise particularly "brave" is the fact that the peso weakened anew, breaching the 44 to a dollar level. In the morning session, the peso hit a low of 54.22, although the average was at a stronger 53.8. With this development, the BSP remained in the sidelines and once again said that it did not intervene directly in the market. However, with the depreciation unabated, some currency dealers have said that the BSP has no other recourse than to raise its overnight rates. The BSP also declined to do this. And so as it was over a week ago when then peso was threatening to breach the 52-level, the next move is with the BSP. Will it become a tradeoff between forex and interest? For sure the latter will have its adverse effects. Wasn't it just the other day when some dailies published that NPLs of commercial banks in May averaged 16.81%. And before that, the government's promised P125 hike of the minimum wage also threatened employer companies to a point that they feared closure and thousands of layoffs.
With all these unresolved, we reiterate our expectation that the market will see lower levels in the coming weeks. 1370 remains as our chief support level.
Meanwhile, there were a number of interesting developments that we believe should be noted. BPC rose mightily by 7.95% to P1.9. There hasn't been any news on the company, nor has the company made any disclosure lately, nor will it benefit from the volatile forex given its foreign debts. Well the rumors circulating is that the company may sell some assets, although such doesn't really warrant a spike in the issue's price.
RFM on the other hand finally succumbed to selling pressure after performing well with a backdrop of a dismal market. Just as well, since we've had a trading sell recommendation on the issue for a number of days now. RFM dipped by 6.67% to P2.38.
Tuesday, July 17, 2001
July 17, 2001
Dollars and Sells
We had a visibly depressed market today, as was to be expected. Following the peso's decline to a morning-low of 53.95 to a dollar, we could have in fact expected panic to set in to the stock market as well. That didn't quite transpire, although the PHISIX did lose 13.6 points by the end of today's trading session. Turnover swelled to almost P800mn coming from an average of under P500mn, but not because investors were rushing to liquidate their holdings. About half of the turnover was from a cross involving Pure Foods (PF). The next most significant in terms of pesos traded would be PLDT (TEL), which continued to weaken despite the peso situation. The issue after all, is partially hedged because of its ADRs that are traded in the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Well not today it seems. TEL closed lower by P5 to P685.
However, it was not really PLDT that drove the market down, but San Miguel. The company's "B" shares which yesterday shot up by 7%, succumbed to selling pressure today, dipping by 2.8%. The issue closed at P52, but fell to as low as P51 in mid-trade. It's "A" shares lost P0.5 to P43.
RFM, on the other hand seems impervious even to a technical correction at this point. It gained another 2% today to P2.55 even as the company disclosed that it expects to come into an agreement with one of the buying parties (Coke or Pepsi) within the week. Then again, that particular disclosure has been coming out for weeks, so we would take it with a grain of salt.
Included in the minority of gainers today would be Digitel (DGTL), which had a subtle 2.04% uptick to P0.5. The company earlier disclosed that it would issue new shares to a strategic investor in order to raise funds. DGTL estimates a capex of $500mn over the next five years for its cellular operations. Apart from the equity infusion, the company also plans a $210mn bond offering.
We expect more downside from the market in the coming days. Since a continued correction did not materialize (with two out of six days closing up), the potential technical rally may be delayed. Already midweek, we would expect the market to inch down to the 1370 level, which is a safe support level. The worrisome peso situation will assure that. After all, the BSPs high-profile talk-down against speculators doesn't seem to be working at all. Lip service and the occasional direct intervention in the forex market seem to be the tools of choice by the BSP. The bank has been unwilling to raise its overnight rates, perhaps because of the adverse effects on the country's already out-of-control budget deficit (try P180bn). Still, it seems that rates are already on the rise, judging from the T-bill auctions yesterday, which saw all tenors rise. That may yet be another signal that the market will continue its descent.
Dollars and Sells
We had a visibly depressed market today, as was to be expected. Following the peso's decline to a morning-low of 53.95 to a dollar, we could have in fact expected panic to set in to the stock market as well. That didn't quite transpire, although the PHISIX did lose 13.6 points by the end of today's trading session. Turnover swelled to almost P800mn coming from an average of under P500mn, but not because investors were rushing to liquidate their holdings. About half of the turnover was from a cross involving Pure Foods (PF). The next most significant in terms of pesos traded would be PLDT (TEL), which continued to weaken despite the peso situation. The issue after all, is partially hedged because of its ADRs that are traded in the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Well not today it seems. TEL closed lower by P5 to P685.
However, it was not really PLDT that drove the market down, but San Miguel. The company's "B" shares which yesterday shot up by 7%, succumbed to selling pressure today, dipping by 2.8%. The issue closed at P52, but fell to as low as P51 in mid-trade. It's "A" shares lost P0.5 to P43.
RFM, on the other hand seems impervious even to a technical correction at this point. It gained another 2% today to P2.55 even as the company disclosed that it expects to come into an agreement with one of the buying parties (Coke or Pepsi) within the week. Then again, that particular disclosure has been coming out for weeks, so we would take it with a grain of salt.
Included in the minority of gainers today would be Digitel (DGTL), which had a subtle 2.04% uptick to P0.5. The company earlier disclosed that it would issue new shares to a strategic investor in order to raise funds. DGTL estimates a capex of $500mn over the next five years for its cellular operations. Apart from the equity infusion, the company also plans a $210mn bond offering.
We expect more downside from the market in the coming days. Since a continued correction did not materialize (with two out of six days closing up), the potential technical rally may be delayed. Already midweek, we would expect the market to inch down to the 1370 level, which is a safe support level. The worrisome peso situation will assure that. After all, the BSPs high-profile talk-down against speculators doesn't seem to be working at all. Lip service and the occasional direct intervention in the forex market seem to be the tools of choice by the BSP. The bank has been unwilling to raise its overnight rates, perhaps because of the adverse effects on the country's already out-of-control budget deficit (try P180bn). Still, it seems that rates are already on the rise, judging from the T-bill auctions yesterday, which saw all tenors rise. That may yet be another signal that the market will continue its descent.
Monday, July 16, 2001
July 16, 2001
Speculation on SMC
The story today, as has been for a number of weeks now, is San Miguel. The conglomerate, which is one of two major players in the softdrink industry bidding for CBC's 25% market share was bought up by 7% to P53.50 - a level which we haven't seen in SMCB for a while. However, with the entire market just accounting for P377mn worth of trades (inclusive of crosses), it wasn't such a daunting task. For SMCB, all it took was P35.5mn to merit the uptick. And this wasn't even because of any fresh news. It was just pure speculation. There was however, an SMC disclosure pertaining to the company's extension of the tender offer period for shares of Pure Foods Corporation, until August 13, 2001. Incidentally, should SMC's bid for CBC prove successful, RFM will be left with Swift, which will now face the combined force of SMC Foods and Pure Foods, further clouding RFM's future assuming a complete divestment of CBC.
As for RFM, the company finally submitted its audited F/S to the PSE, thereby avoiding penalties from the exchange, such as suspension of trades. In its statement, the company said it managed an operating income of P550mn in 2000, but registered a net loss of P520 due to a large P1bn foreign exchange loss on its dollar-denominated convertible bonds. Despite the dampener news however, RFM still rode on speculation and gained 12.61% to P2.5.
With the index once again failing to close above the 1400 level, we would suspect that there should be a number of bargains among blue chips and second liners already. In our search, we found AC, which is already oversold with a daily RSI of 6.362. The issue declined P0.1 today to P6.7. The issue looks attractive at this level already. However, should it cover a gap at the P6.3 level, it becomes all the more compelling.
Bankard, albeit not having felt the spotlight since it was acquired by RCBC, looks technically attractive right now. It was untraded today and last closed at P1.3. Buy on weakness.
FPH, which managed another P1.5 gain today and closed at P33 is very overbought, as both daily and weekly RSIs would show. The issue may breakout past P35.50, but will most likely correct first. It should retrace to the P30 level.
LTDI looks like it's on the verge of a correction. Unchanged at P27 today, the issue may hit P30 in the next few weeks.
Speculation on SMC
The story today, as has been for a number of weeks now, is San Miguel. The conglomerate, which is one of two major players in the softdrink industry bidding for CBC's 25% market share was bought up by 7% to P53.50 - a level which we haven't seen in SMCB for a while. However, with the entire market just accounting for P377mn worth of trades (inclusive of crosses), it wasn't such a daunting task. For SMCB, all it took was P35.5mn to merit the uptick. And this wasn't even because of any fresh news. It was just pure speculation. There was however, an SMC disclosure pertaining to the company's extension of the tender offer period for shares of Pure Foods Corporation, until August 13, 2001. Incidentally, should SMC's bid for CBC prove successful, RFM will be left with Swift, which will now face the combined force of SMC Foods and Pure Foods, further clouding RFM's future assuming a complete divestment of CBC.
As for RFM, the company finally submitted its audited F/S to the PSE, thereby avoiding penalties from the exchange, such as suspension of trades. In its statement, the company said it managed an operating income of P550mn in 2000, but registered a net loss of P520 due to a large P1bn foreign exchange loss on its dollar-denominated convertible bonds. Despite the dampener news however, RFM still rode on speculation and gained 12.61% to P2.5.
With the index once again failing to close above the 1400 level, we would suspect that there should be a number of bargains among blue chips and second liners already. In our search, we found AC, which is already oversold with a daily RSI of 6.362. The issue declined P0.1 today to P6.7. The issue looks attractive at this level already. However, should it cover a gap at the P6.3 level, it becomes all the more compelling.
Bankard, albeit not having felt the spotlight since it was acquired by RCBC, looks technically attractive right now. It was untraded today and last closed at P1.3. Buy on weakness.
FPH, which managed another P1.5 gain today and closed at P33 is very overbought, as both daily and weekly RSIs would show. The issue may breakout past P35.50, but will most likely correct first. It should retrace to the P30 level.
LTDI looks like it's on the verge of a correction. Unchanged at P27 today, the issue may hit P30 in the next few weeks.
Wednesday, July 11, 2001
July 11, 2001
Bagsak na naman, badtrip no?
The market failed to bounce back to the 1,400 level as the selling wave continued. Now down for a second day, the market which has been down week on week for the past three weeks is almost devoid of any volume. Usually, a large cross would push market turnover to within striking distance of the half-billion peso mark. Then again, this has been the case for the past months; wherein market volume suddenly spikes when something very relevant transpires, as when ex-President Estrada was ousted, or when the power bill was passed. Then as the news becomes factored into the prices, volumes once again start to dwindle and trends are lost. Before we know it, the market is just drifting aimlessly again.
During these periods, technicals and speculations become the primary direction-setters of the market. Well, the index is technically negative in both the daily and weekly charts. But like we pointed out yesterday, the main index is once again on the verge of being technically oversold. We see the major support level at 1370. At about that level, which may perhaps be reached within the week or early next week, we would suggest selective buying of blue chips. We'll see which ones will become attractive by the weekend.
The other factor moving the market, speculation has in fact been at the forefront of trading for weeks now. Starting with the usual talks of backdoor listing through mining stocks, the talks are now centered on SMC and its impending purchase of CBC from cash-strapped RFM. Latest news is that SMC has confirmed talks with RFM, and that the company hopes that the talks will be completed within the month. Purchase price for RFM's entire stake in CBC is now reportedly at P14bn. Today RFM and CBC managed a P0.02 and P0.1 gain, respectively. SMC "A" shares dipped by P0.5, while SMC "B" shares closed unchanged at P47.5. We have a sell on strength recommendation on RFM and CBC, and a buy on weakness recommendation on SMC "A" and "B" shares.
MERB, which was today's most actively traded issue lost P2 with over 900k shares changing hands. The issue is technically oversold already, although we believe it may still drop to around P48. We have a wait to buy recommendation for MERB.
Meanwhile, the latest slump of the market has been blamed on the peso's weakness. True enough, recent days have shown that the stock market has mimicked the peso. Thus, with the market's decline today, the peso also predictably weakened. In fact the peso, breached the 53 to a dollar level again. Perhaps in a couple of days, we may see the BSP intervening again. If that coincides with the index reaching 1370, we may see a good rally just yet.
Bagsak na naman, badtrip no?
The market failed to bounce back to the 1,400 level as the selling wave continued. Now down for a second day, the market which has been down week on week for the past three weeks is almost devoid of any volume. Usually, a large cross would push market turnover to within striking distance of the half-billion peso mark. Then again, this has been the case for the past months; wherein market volume suddenly spikes when something very relevant transpires, as when ex-President Estrada was ousted, or when the power bill was passed. Then as the news becomes factored into the prices, volumes once again start to dwindle and trends are lost. Before we know it, the market is just drifting aimlessly again.
During these periods, technicals and speculations become the primary direction-setters of the market. Well, the index is technically negative in both the daily and weekly charts. But like we pointed out yesterday, the main index is once again on the verge of being technically oversold. We see the major support level at 1370. At about that level, which may perhaps be reached within the week or early next week, we would suggest selective buying of blue chips. We'll see which ones will become attractive by the weekend.
The other factor moving the market, speculation has in fact been at the forefront of trading for weeks now. Starting with the usual talks of backdoor listing through mining stocks, the talks are now centered on SMC and its impending purchase of CBC from cash-strapped RFM. Latest news is that SMC has confirmed talks with RFM, and that the company hopes that the talks will be completed within the month. Purchase price for RFM's entire stake in CBC is now reportedly at P14bn. Today RFM and CBC managed a P0.02 and P0.1 gain, respectively. SMC "A" shares dipped by P0.5, while SMC "B" shares closed unchanged at P47.5. We have a sell on strength recommendation on RFM and CBC, and a buy on weakness recommendation on SMC "A" and "B" shares.
MERB, which was today's most actively traded issue lost P2 with over 900k shares changing hands. The issue is technically oversold already, although we believe it may still drop to around P48. We have a wait to buy recommendation for MERB.
Meanwhile, the latest slump of the market has been blamed on the peso's weakness. True enough, recent days have shown that the stock market has mimicked the peso. Thus, with the market's decline today, the peso also predictably weakened. In fact the peso, breached the 53 to a dollar level again. Perhaps in a couple of days, we may see the BSP intervening again. If that coincides with the index reaching 1370, we may see a good rally just yet.
Tuesday, July 10, 2001
July 10, 2001
A New Face
Hi! It's been a while since I actually updated the site in terms of aesthetics. I haven't taken a fresh look so to speak, nor have I even said a few words to thank the sponsors. What sponsors?! Anyway, I would like to greet my friend Patti a belated happy birthday. She's such a dear and remains BF-less as of this point. Hmmm...I believe I made a similar plug for my friend Jojo. Hmmm...a dating site in the works. Interesting.
And for your information, I don't just write boring stock market stuff. I also have an occasional urge to write short stories. Check out my most recent one.
I also had a stint as a fashion model (hehehe) which my mother refers to as my Abu Sayyaf pose. Heavens, I hope they all get gunned down.
I'm now using a different guestbook because my old one folded up. Eek. Shows you the extent of the dotcom crash doesn't it. Anyway, I'm using Dreambook now. So, if you've been aching to curse me for all my comments, I have a working guestbook once more. Hooray.
ABS-CBN Brief
I'm currently doing a write-up for ABS-CBN. If you're interested in the stock, you may want to read through my short report. It's not yet finished. But then again, it won't be so for a couple of weeks. In fact, I haven't included my opinions yet. Nonetheless, it could be useful if you've been out of touch with the company in the recent months.
The company is planning to institute a share buy-back program. The purchased shares will be partly used for the company's stock option plan. The company's authorized buy-back numbers to 10mn common shares or 1.3% of the company's outstanding stock.
The move has fueled speculations that ABS will bail out its debt-saddled mother company, Benpres Holdings by buying back its own shares to prevent BPC's dilution. BPC earlier announced that it will sell up to 8% of its almost 60% stake in ABS to raise funds of about P2bn-P2.5bn. BPC's two units - Bayan Telecommunications Inc. and Maynilad Water Services Inc are plagued with mostly dollar-denominated debts amounting to around $1.3bn. That's when ABS clarified that the share buy-back will only constitute 10mn shares.
ABS is likewise keen on expanding overseas via the purchase of television stations, particularly in Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand. However, the company is still in the process of determing the viability of such investments. This comes however, with an admission from the company that the growth prospects for the domestic market are already relatively limited.
Furthermore, the company believes that it will be limiting if Filipino programs only target the 70mn Filipinos, compared to the Spanish soap opera shows that cater to half a billion Latin Americans. ABS believes that it can produce programs of similar quality.
Thus, the company's core belief is that future growth will be propelled by new markets in terms of both region and content platforms (such as television, publishing, cable and Internet). In fact, ABS-CBN International, which accounted for 12% of the company's revenues for 2000 will contribute about 15%-16% this year.
The company announced that its first quarter income grew by less than a percent to P420.169mn from P418.657mn last year. Revenues were up 17.43% to P2.115bn, despite the declines by radio and sports revenues. TV-VHF growth was at 15%, and accounts for 90% of airtime revenues. The company also garnered a 44% market share in Metro Manila. The revenue growth was also partially attributable to the consolidation of Studio 23. Nonetheless, the topline growth was overshadowed by the 26.3% spike in operating expenses to P1.652bn from P1.308bn.
The company has planned capital expenditures worth P3.5bn for 2001, of which P2.3bn will be sourced from the company retained earnings. The rest will be funded through internall generated cash and new borrowings. Of the P3.5bn, P1.5 will be used for normal maintenance while P1.0bn will be used to complete three new digital studios being built behind its present complex. Another P500mn will be used for "digitalisation" of content, while the remaining P500mn will be used to fund the company's expansion to the Middle East. Next year, the company will push through with its plans to build a theme park.
A New Face
Hi! It's been a while since I actually updated the site in terms of aesthetics. I haven't taken a fresh look so to speak, nor have I even said a few words to thank the sponsors. What sponsors?! Anyway, I would like to greet my friend Patti a belated happy birthday. She's such a dear and remains BF-less as of this point. Hmmm...I believe I made a similar plug for my friend Jojo. Hmmm...a dating site in the works. Interesting.
And for your information, I don't just write boring stock market stuff. I also have an occasional urge to write short stories. Check out my most recent one.
I also had a stint as a fashion model (hehehe) which my mother refers to as my Abu Sayyaf pose. Heavens, I hope they all get gunned down.
I'm now using a different guestbook because my old one folded up. Eek. Shows you the extent of the dotcom crash doesn't it. Anyway, I'm using Dreambook now. So, if you've been aching to curse me for all my comments, I have a working guestbook once more. Hooray.
ABS-CBN Brief
I'm currently doing a write-up for ABS-CBN. If you're interested in the stock, you may want to read through my short report. It's not yet finished. But then again, it won't be so for a couple of weeks. In fact, I haven't included my opinions yet. Nonetheless, it could be useful if you've been out of touch with the company in the recent months.
The company is planning to institute a share buy-back program. The purchased shares will be partly used for the company's stock option plan. The company's authorized buy-back numbers to 10mn common shares or 1.3% of the company's outstanding stock.
The move has fueled speculations that ABS will bail out its debt-saddled mother company, Benpres Holdings by buying back its own shares to prevent BPC's dilution. BPC earlier announced that it will sell up to 8% of its almost 60% stake in ABS to raise funds of about P2bn-P2.5bn. BPC's two units - Bayan Telecommunications Inc. and Maynilad Water Services Inc are plagued with mostly dollar-denominated debts amounting to around $1.3bn. That's when ABS clarified that the share buy-back will only constitute 10mn shares.
ABS is likewise keen on expanding overseas via the purchase of television stations, particularly in Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand. However, the company is still in the process of determing the viability of such investments. This comes however, with an admission from the company that the growth prospects for the domestic market are already relatively limited.
Furthermore, the company believes that it will be limiting if Filipino programs only target the 70mn Filipinos, compared to the Spanish soap opera shows that cater to half a billion Latin Americans. ABS believes that it can produce programs of similar quality.
Thus, the company's core belief is that future growth will be propelled by new markets in terms of both region and content platforms (such as television, publishing, cable and Internet). In fact, ABS-CBN International, which accounted for 12% of the company's revenues for 2000 will contribute about 15%-16% this year.
The company announced that its first quarter income grew by less than a percent to P420.169mn from P418.657mn last year. Revenues were up 17.43% to P2.115bn, despite the declines by radio and sports revenues. TV-VHF growth was at 15%, and accounts for 90% of airtime revenues. The company also garnered a 44% market share in Metro Manila. The revenue growth was also partially attributable to the consolidation of Studio 23. Nonetheless, the topline growth was overshadowed by the 26.3% spike in operating expenses to P1.652bn from P1.308bn.
The company has planned capital expenditures worth P3.5bn for 2001, of which P2.3bn will be sourced from the company retained earnings. The rest will be funded through internall generated cash and new borrowings. Of the P3.5bn, P1.5 will be used for normal maintenance while P1.0bn will be used to complete three new digital studios being built behind its present complex. Another P500mn will be used for "digitalisation" of content, while the remaining P500mn will be used to fund the company's expansion to the Middle East. Next year, the company will push through with its plans to build a theme park.
Thursday, July 05, 2001
July 5, 2001
Dispelled
After being caught in an entrancing 10-session decline, the market finally gained some headway, following the peso's rebound to an average of P52.954 to a dollar from yesterday's P53.025. While there has been no feedback yet if the BSP intervened in the peso market today, the central bank did announce that it did not change interest rates. The BSP in fact has been consistently saying that its most serious consideration right now as regards the overnight rates, is the inflation picture for the rest of the year. In effect, the BSP has been downplaying any the chance of an interest hike based on the weakening peso.
In any case, most investors, despite the rain, went bargain hunting with 43 issues recording gains, compared to only 27 that showed losses. Turnover remains lackluster - not even reaching that P500mn mark.
Most funds flowed into big blue chips like BPI, which gained P1.50 to P72.5. Fellow Ayala subsdiary, ALI was also buoyed by the positive sentiment and gained 5.88% on the day to close at P5.4. BPC, having a see-saw week, once again performed strongly, gaining 6.98% to P1.84. SMPH, which has been fairly steady for the week, posted a modest gain of P0.10 to close at P6.2.
RFM quietly gained another 5.81%, closed at its intra-day peak and earned the distinction of reaching its 10-month high. What makes it remarkable though is that the rest of the market has reached bargain level prices courtesy of the 10-day skid.
For tomorrow, we would like to see the index breach through the 1410 level to affirm its technical rebound. Should that happen, we see a positive reversal for the index. Resistance is at 1430.
Dispelled
After being caught in an entrancing 10-session decline, the market finally gained some headway, following the peso's rebound to an average of P52.954 to a dollar from yesterday's P53.025. While there has been no feedback yet if the BSP intervened in the peso market today, the central bank did announce that it did not change interest rates. The BSP in fact has been consistently saying that its most serious consideration right now as regards the overnight rates, is the inflation picture for the rest of the year. In effect, the BSP has been downplaying any the chance of an interest hike based on the weakening peso.
In any case, most investors, despite the rain, went bargain hunting with 43 issues recording gains, compared to only 27 that showed losses. Turnover remains lackluster - not even reaching that P500mn mark.
Most funds flowed into big blue chips like BPI, which gained P1.50 to P72.5. Fellow Ayala subsdiary, ALI was also buoyed by the positive sentiment and gained 5.88% on the day to close at P5.4. BPC, having a see-saw week, once again performed strongly, gaining 6.98% to P1.84. SMPH, which has been fairly steady for the week, posted a modest gain of P0.10 to close at P6.2.
RFM quietly gained another 5.81%, closed at its intra-day peak and earned the distinction of reaching its 10-month high. What makes it remarkable though is that the rest of the market has reached bargain level prices courtesy of the 10-day skid.
For tomorrow, we would like to see the index breach through the 1410 level to affirm its technical rebound. Should that happen, we see a positive reversal for the index. Resistance is at 1430.
Wednesday, July 04, 2001
July 4, 2001
Weeklong Weakness
For sentimental reasons it would almost be a shame for the index to stop its downslide. For the tenth straight session, and the 12th in 13 sessions, the index registered a decline. With today's 6.08-point drop, the index is now at a strong support level while maintaining its oversold position. For this reason, we believe the bounce may be imminent within the last two days of the week.
That of course presupposes a natural course of events in the usual factors affecting the market. However, with the freefall of the peso we doubt if there will be much buying pressure in the bourse in the coming days. As the peso breached the 53:$1 level, the BSP claimed that the dollar purchases represent legitimate corporate demand and not speculation. In effect, the BSP said that it has not yet stepped in to defend the falling peso, but indicated that it will do so if necessary. Traders however said that a US bank and a European bank sold more than $15mn at the 53 level today, fueling speculations the banks did so for the BSP.
Now instead of directly intervening in the forex market, we believe the BSP may choose to raise interest rates, similar to what it did in the last quarter of 2000 when the peso plunged from about 42 to 50 to a dollar.
Given the parallel weakness of the two markets, we may just see a simultaneous recovery with one market taking its cue from the other. Most probably, it will depend on a decisive act from the BSP. Perhaps by tomorrow, with the Monetary Board's meeting, we may find the answer.
Given today's scenario, it comes as no surprise that SLC performed strongly, gaining P55 to P1250. This puts the issue within striking distance of its all-time high of P1335. MFC performed just as well, padding its price by P40 to close up at P1455. Now both issues are technically overbought. Nonetheless, we believe most investors will continue to trade the issues given the volatility of the forex market.
PLDT, like SLC and MFC has a dollar-asset counterpart. But unlike the two, most of PLDT's assets are based in the country, making it much more susceptible to wild gyrations in interest and exchange rates. The issue didn't finish shabbily though, closing flat at P710.
Meanwhile, in the news, FPH was reported as planning to sell a stake in its subsidiary First Generation Holdings Corp. to a Japanese investor. FPH, which has been in an uptrend in the recent weeks, today closed unchanged at P28.50. Its mother company, BPC was not quite as lucky. The conglomerate faced a deluge of selling orders resulting in a 7.53% decline to P1.72, virtually erasing its gains from yesterday's trade.
RFM, which has generally been an illiquid stock, has attracted much attention in recent weeks after its softdrink unit Cosmos, has been receiving offers from both Pepsi and Coke for a buy-in. Today, 9.7mn shares of RFM traded hands, or almost thrice its 30-day average volume, with the issue gaining 4.88% to close at P1.72. CBC had a similarly positive day as well, inching up 2.33% to P4.4.
Weeklong Weakness
For sentimental reasons it would almost be a shame for the index to stop its downslide. For the tenth straight session, and the 12th in 13 sessions, the index registered a decline. With today's 6.08-point drop, the index is now at a strong support level while maintaining its oversold position. For this reason, we believe the bounce may be imminent within the last two days of the week.
That of course presupposes a natural course of events in the usual factors affecting the market. However, with the freefall of the peso we doubt if there will be much buying pressure in the bourse in the coming days. As the peso breached the 53:$1 level, the BSP claimed that the dollar purchases represent legitimate corporate demand and not speculation. In effect, the BSP said that it has not yet stepped in to defend the falling peso, but indicated that it will do so if necessary. Traders however said that a US bank and a European bank sold more than $15mn at the 53 level today, fueling speculations the banks did so for the BSP.
Now instead of directly intervening in the forex market, we believe the BSP may choose to raise interest rates, similar to what it did in the last quarter of 2000 when the peso plunged from about 42 to 50 to a dollar.
Given the parallel weakness of the two markets, we may just see a simultaneous recovery with one market taking its cue from the other. Most probably, it will depend on a decisive act from the BSP. Perhaps by tomorrow, with the Monetary Board's meeting, we may find the answer.
Given today's scenario, it comes as no surprise that SLC performed strongly, gaining P55 to P1250. This puts the issue within striking distance of its all-time high of P1335. MFC performed just as well, padding its price by P40 to close up at P1455. Now both issues are technically overbought. Nonetheless, we believe most investors will continue to trade the issues given the volatility of the forex market.
PLDT, like SLC and MFC has a dollar-asset counterpart. But unlike the two, most of PLDT's assets are based in the country, making it much more susceptible to wild gyrations in interest and exchange rates. The issue didn't finish shabbily though, closing flat at P710.
Meanwhile, in the news, FPH was reported as planning to sell a stake in its subsidiary First Generation Holdings Corp. to a Japanese investor. FPH, which has been in an uptrend in the recent weeks, today closed unchanged at P28.50. Its mother company, BPC was not quite as lucky. The conglomerate faced a deluge of selling orders resulting in a 7.53% decline to P1.72, virtually erasing its gains from yesterday's trade.
RFM, which has generally been an illiquid stock, has attracted much attention in recent weeks after its softdrink unit Cosmos, has been receiving offers from both Pepsi and Coke for a buy-in. Today, 9.7mn shares of RFM traded hands, or almost thrice its 30-day average volume, with the issue gaining 4.88% to close at P1.72. CBC had a similarly positive day as well, inching up 2.33% to P4.4.
Tuesday, July 03, 2001
July 3, 2001
Be Still My Peso
Today's trading session resulted in the 9th consecutive day of decline of the PHISIX. The 3.72-point dip was the consequence of 39 issues registering declines, against only 28 that could manage gains.
The market's primary concern these days is the steadily depreciating peso. Even more worrisome is that in the past two days (including today), the declines have become faster. The BSP has already said that there has been slow dollar inflows coupled with strong corporate demand, leading to the strengthening of the dollar. At this rate, we may expect the peso to start touching the 53:$1 level perhaps even by tomorrow.
Psychologically, that may result in even more sell-offs at the stock market. However, as is the main index is already technically oversold. Hence, barring any unforeseen major negative event, we could look forward to a technical bounce, perhaps by the end of the week.
But as mentioned, the market has been weighed down by the peso's condition. As a pre-cursor to the bourse's rally, we must see some upside from the peso as well. Otherwise, there will be a host of concerns that will crop up again. There will be worries concerning companies with foreign-denominated debt. We would also see some upward pressure on interest rates. Then of course, even as the big three major oil refiners raised prices this week, there will be more pressure to raise oil prices again. The BSP for its part, claims that it has not yet intervened in the forex market although again it paid lip service banks that may have been speculating.
Strangely, with the peso becoming a concern, the normally reliable forex hedge issues such as PLDT and Sun Life both registered declines today. Whereas PLDT corrected by P20 to P710, SLC lost P25 to P1195. Then again, we have trading sell recommendations for both issues, precisely because they have been rallying for the past week or so. Still, with weak peso conditions prevailing, we doubt that the corrections of both issues will last long.
Completing the irony would be the strong performances of BPC, PLTL and MPC - all of which have onerous debt loads. In the case of BPC, unconfirmed reports said that the company's water unit Maynilad has been granted its coveted rate hike. BPC in consequence, shot up by 8.14% to P1.86. PLTL on the other hand gained 6.67% and closed at P0.64. MPC, which earlier announced that it will dispose of its stake in the bleeding Nenaco by declaring its Nenaco shares as dividends to MPC shareholders, rose by 2.13% and closed at P0.48. MPC also announced that it had completed the Phase 1 structure of Bonifacio Ridge and that it already has a 70% take-up.
Philweb, which a year ago dazzled the market with its shift into the Internet business, announced that it had entered into an MOA with Itogon-Suyoc Mines, Inc., for the purchase of 12bn unissued shares of ISM. Under the agreement, ISM will divest its mining operations and will focus on IT services as well. The company will also court new investors who will be given control of ISM. WEB rose by 2.63% to P0.039, while ISM shed off 8.70% to P0.0525.
Be Still My Peso
Today's trading session resulted in the 9th consecutive day of decline of the PHISIX. The 3.72-point dip was the consequence of 39 issues registering declines, against only 28 that could manage gains.
The market's primary concern these days is the steadily depreciating peso. Even more worrisome is that in the past two days (including today), the declines have become faster. The BSP has already said that there has been slow dollar inflows coupled with strong corporate demand, leading to the strengthening of the dollar. At this rate, we may expect the peso to start touching the 53:$1 level perhaps even by tomorrow.
Psychologically, that may result in even more sell-offs at the stock market. However, as is the main index is already technically oversold. Hence, barring any unforeseen major negative event, we could look forward to a technical bounce, perhaps by the end of the week.
But as mentioned, the market has been weighed down by the peso's condition. As a pre-cursor to the bourse's rally, we must see some upside from the peso as well. Otherwise, there will be a host of concerns that will crop up again. There will be worries concerning companies with foreign-denominated debt. We would also see some upward pressure on interest rates. Then of course, even as the big three major oil refiners raised prices this week, there will be more pressure to raise oil prices again. The BSP for its part, claims that it has not yet intervened in the forex market although again it paid lip service banks that may have been speculating.
Strangely, with the peso becoming a concern, the normally reliable forex hedge issues such as PLDT and Sun Life both registered declines today. Whereas PLDT corrected by P20 to P710, SLC lost P25 to P1195. Then again, we have trading sell recommendations for both issues, precisely because they have been rallying for the past week or so. Still, with weak peso conditions prevailing, we doubt that the corrections of both issues will last long.
Completing the irony would be the strong performances of BPC, PLTL and MPC - all of which have onerous debt loads. In the case of BPC, unconfirmed reports said that the company's water unit Maynilad has been granted its coveted rate hike. BPC in consequence, shot up by 8.14% to P1.86. PLTL on the other hand gained 6.67% and closed at P0.64. MPC, which earlier announced that it will dispose of its stake in the bleeding Nenaco by declaring its Nenaco shares as dividends to MPC shareholders, rose by 2.13% and closed at P0.48. MPC also announced that it had completed the Phase 1 structure of Bonifacio Ridge and that it already has a 70% take-up.
Philweb, which a year ago dazzled the market with its shift into the Internet business, announced that it had entered into an MOA with Itogon-Suyoc Mines, Inc., for the purchase of 12bn unissued shares of ISM. Under the agreement, ISM will divest its mining operations and will focus on IT services as well. The company will also court new investors who will be given control of ISM. WEB rose by 2.63% to P0.039, while ISM shed off 8.70% to P0.0525.
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